3,000 Players Just Bet Their Careers on the Portal — Most Will Lose

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Athletic Entrepreneur - THE PORTAL REPORT — Issue No.103 | April 2026

They Entered the Portal. Nobody Called.

“Nobody told me it would be like this.”

That’s what a Division I guard from a mid-major program said after spending six weeks in the transfer portal last spring — taking no visits, receiving no scholarship offers, and ultimately sitting out next season. He had averaged 14 points a game. He thought the phone would ring.

It didn’t.

THIS WEEK’S NUMBERS

• 3,000+ — Players expected in the portal this cycle
• 70% — Power conference players who transfer down or find nothing
• 61% — Mid-major players who drop out of D-I or go unsigned

The NCAA transfer portal opened April 7th. Within 48 hours, over 1,000 men’s college basketball players had entered their names. By the time the window closes April 21st, projections point to more than 3,000 players — the highest number in the portal’s history.

Every year it breaks the record. Every year, the majority of those players discover the same brutal truth the hard way.

The portal is not a free market. It’s a feeding frenzy — and the big fish eat first.

TENNESSEE: THE STORY BEHIND THE STORY

You may have seen the Tennessee women’s program collapse in real time this week. After a 16-14 season that ended with eight consecutive losses, every single returning player with eligibility entered the portal. All eight. Top recruit Oliviyah Edwards — a McDonald’s All-American who had turned down USC, South Carolina, LSU and Florida — asked for her release too. Coach Kim Caldwell was left with exactly one incoming player for next season.

On the men’s side, Rick Barnes lost six scholarship players to the portal plus three graduating seniors, forcing a near-complete roster rebuild at a program that just made its third straight Elite Eight.

Tennessee’s high-profile players will be fine. They’ll land at Power Four schools with NIL deals.

The real story is the thousands of players at mid-major programs who watched that exodus, saw PJ Haggerty announce his fifth transfer in five seasons, and decided: that could be me.

For most of them, it cannot. The math doesn’t work that way.

THE NUMBERS THEY DON’T TELL YOU AT MEDIA DAY

A joint study by AD Advisors and analytics firm Timark Partners examined what actually happens to players who enter the portal. The findings should be required reading for every player, parent, and AAU coach in America:

70% of men’s basketball players from Power Four conferences and the Big East who entered the portal either failed to find a new school or transferred DOWN to a lower-tier program.

61% of players from mid-major and low-major conferences either dropped below Division I entirely or never found a landing spot at all.

The portal drew 2,083 players in 2024, then 2,700 in 2025. This cycle projects past 3,000. The number of available scholarship spots has not grown with it.

The supply of players is exploding. The demand is not.

Think about what that means for a junior at Belmont, Murray State, or Fairleigh Dickinson averaging 12 points a game. He sees a teammate bolt to a bigger conference on an NIL deal. He thinks: I put up the same numbers. Why not me?

He enters the portal. The window closes. His scholarship at his original school is no longer guaranteed. His phone doesn’t ring the way he expected. He’s on the outside of D-I basketball looking in.

THE PORTAL REWARDS THE ALREADY-REWARDED

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: the portal is a prestige amplifier, not a prestige creator.

PJ Haggerty — 23.4 points per game at Kansas State, fourth in the nation — committed to Texas A&M within days. Dai Dai Ames, All-ACC at Cal, had Tennessee calling immediately. These players aren’t navigating the portal. The portal navigates around them.

The player averaging 11 points at a MAC school? He’s navigating alone — usually without an agent, without a portal consulting service, without anyone who has done this before sitting across the table from him.

One analyst put the NIL temptation plainly: “If you’re the third-best player at Weber State and a bigger school throws $450,000 at you — even if you play worse there, that’s more money than you’ll probably make the rest of your life. It is very difficult to tell somebody they shouldn’t take it.”

Tough to argue with. Harder to watch play out badly.

THE HIDDEN COST

There’s another casualty buried in the portal data that doesn’t make SportsCenter.

A 2025 Sports Illustrated investigation found that graduation rates — which college sports had steadily improved for three decades — are now trending back down as a direct result of increased transfer volume. When you transfer, you often lose credits. You restart social support systems. You change academic advisors. You start over, athletically and academically, at the exact moment a young person needs stability most.

The NCAA has this data. They just don’t lead with it during March Madness.

WHAT A SMART PORTAL DECISION ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE

The players who thrive in the portal share one thing: they entered with a plan, not a prayer.

They knew their film was ready before they entered. They knew which conferences valued their skill set. They had conversations with coaches before the portal opened. They understood their NIL value realistically. They had someone — a parent, an advisor, a mentor — who had studied the process.

The players who get lost entered because a teammate did. Or because they had a bad week. Or because someone on social media made it look easy.

The window is 15 days. Fifteen days to make a decision that affects the next two to four years of your life, your degree, your professional future. Programs move fast. If you’re not ready on Day 1, you’re already behind.

The GSIP Portal Decision Framework: Navigate Smarter, Land Better

Most players enter the portal hoping. This e-book is for the ones who want a strategy.

Built from real portal cycles, real data, and real outcomes — The Portal Playbook walks you through exactly how to position yourself before you enter, how to read a program’s roster needs, how to handle NIL conversations, and how to make a decision you won’t regret in six months.

-> How to assess your real market value before you enter
-> The 30-day pre-portal prep checklist coaches actually respect
-> Mid-major to Power Four: who makes it and why
-> The questions every player should ask before committing
-> What NIL conversations actually look like — and what to avoid

GET EBOOKS: https://gsip.pro/shop 

THE BOTTOM LINE

Over 3,000 players will enter this cycle. Fewer than half will land somewhere that represents a genuine upgrade. Hundreds will find themselves in limbo — no scholarship, no school, season lost.

The difference between the players who win the portal and the players who get swallowed by it is almost never talent.

It’s preparation. It’s information. It’s having someone in their corner who understands the system.

Be that person for yourself. Or make sure you have one.

Sources: AD Advisors / Timark Partners study; Mid-Major Madness / Extra Points analysis; Sports Illustrated; ESPN Transfer Portal Tracker; Front Office Sports; On3 portal data. All statistics current as of April 12, 2026.

And remember 100 pushups per day, keeps the cobwebs away. Throw some squats in the mix too. Be well.